PROBABILITY MODELING TOOL
Monte Carlo Portfolio Simulator
Markets don't move in straight lines. Run hundreds of simulations to see the full range of where your portfolio could end up.
Every line on the chart is a possible future. Adjust return, volatility, and time horizon to see how the probabilities shift.
No sign-up required · Instant results
Ages
Portfolio
While working
Returns & Risk
Growth while working
More conservative in retirement
Diversified portfolio: 12-18%
Retirement Spending
$48,000/year from portfolio
Simulations
1,000 simulations · Ages 45-90
Portfolio Growth & Retirement Scenarios
Retirement Timeline
How long your savings may last — median simulation
At Retirement
$0
median at age 65
Plan Success Rate
Below minimum
Min: 70% · Target: 80%+ · Ideal: 90%+
Success = money remaining at age 90. Failure = portfolio runs out before then.
Great Scenario
$0
90th pct, age 90
Tough Scenario
$0
10th pct, age 90
Significant Shortfall
Only 0% of simulations survive to age 90. At $4,000/month, you need $684,240 at retirement. The median projection is $0, a gap of $684,240.
Confidence Meter
Projected vs. goal requirement
Across 1,000 simulations, the median run sustains your portfolio through age 90. The next question is whether you can spend more, give more, or retire earlier without breaking the plan.
This is an estimate, not a number to plan around alone.
This calculator is an educational tool to help you think through scenarios. The results are illustrative estimates based on the inputs you provided and general assumptions. They are not financial advice, and the numbers shown should not be relied on as exact to your situation.
Real outcomes depend on factors a calculator can't fully model: your complete tax picture, plan-specific rules, market performance, IRS rate changes, life events, and how all the pieces of your financial life interact. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Before making any decision based on these numbers, let's talk. I'll look at your full picture, pressure-test the assumptions, and help you understand what these numbers actually mean for you, at no cost.